Endgame Analytics puts TOD Markets forward curves alongside its models in "Trading places"
In its latest analysis, Endgame Analytics compares TOD Markets closing and traded Time-of-Day swap prices with its machine-learning and fundamental models to show what the forward curve is signalling about the NEM, and where the market and the models part ways.
We were pleased to see TOD Markets data at the centre of Trading places, the latest article from Endgame Analytics. The article asks a question every desk faces: when the forward curve, a machine-learning forecast and a fundamental model all disagree, what is the gap telling you?
To answer it, the Endgame team put three independent views of the National Electricity Market on the same chart. The first is observable forward pricing from TOD Markets: daily closes and traded Time-of-Day swaps. The second is pd4castr, their machine-learning forecast. The third is Prisma, their fundamental capacity-expansion model. It is careful, well-built analysis, and a good example of what market data and modelling can do together.
As the Endgame article shows, the value is greatest when that market signal sits next to good modelling. The curve tells you what participants are paying for risk today. The models tell you where the system should head. The gap between them is where the useful questions are. Our closing price data is also available as a service for businesses that do not trade. Get in touch to find out more.
Thank you to the team at Endgame Analytics for a thoughtful piece of work. We recommend reading the full article, including all six charts and their outlook for the curve: Endgame Analytics — Trading places.
Hero image: Chart 1 from “Trading places”, courtesy of Endgame Analytics, cropped. It shows TOD Markets closes and traded swaps, AEMO settled prices, and the pd4castr and Prisma forecasts for the NSW evening peak, at the 20 October 2026 close.
